US Class 8 Retail Sales Below Expectations

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VTNA’s New River Valley Plant, located in Dublin, Va. has been expanded by $400 million. (Volvo Trucks North America)

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Magnus Koeck, Vice President of Strategy and Marketing at Volvo Trucks North America, said that U.S. Class-8 retail truck sales were a little below expectations in the first five months 2024. He now expects them to total between 260,000 and 270,000 vehicles in 2024.

The executive said that there are some bright spots, such as private fleets.

Koeck, speaking at a media conference at VTNA’s newly expanded New River Valley facility in Dublin, Va. said that the North American Class-8 market was undergoing a correction, and the first five month of the year had progressed largely in line with expectations. VTNA had previously predicted retail sales of 270,000 trucks.

“The market behaved exactly how we had anticipated,” he said. “We have come from an extremely high market and we all know exactly what happened [during COVID-19’s pandemic] – and recovered very quickly, with everyone having survived some disruptions and so forth,” he told journalists. “The demand was far greater than the supply.” We’re now entering a correction in the market.

Wards Intelligence’s latest data shows that sales in the first five months 2024 dropped 14.6% from 111.723 units to 95.401 units.

Magnus Koeck, VTNA’s executive director, said that the North American Class 8 Market “behaved exactly how we had anticipated it to behave” in the first 5 months of the year. (Keiron Greenhalgh/Transport Topics)

Wards data show that retail sales decreased for the 10th consecutive month in May. They fell 18% from 24,111 units to 19,764 unit. The Wards data shows that sales also decreased 0.2% in April from 19,798.

Chris Visser is director of specialty vehicles for J.D. He says that prices are now on par with the weakest pre-pandemic period in late 2019. Power said in a post on LinkedIn dated June 19. He said that depreciation will average 2.8% per month in 2024, but traditional retail buyers are facing a difficult lending environment and insurance environment.

VTNA sold 9,952 Class 8 cars in the U.S. through May 31. The Volvo Group subsidiary’s U.S. market share was 10.4% at the end of the month. According to Koeck, this compares to 9.9% for the same period last year and 10% in total in 2023.

VTNA’s Canadian market share through the first five month of 2024 was 13,7%, according company data. This compares to 11,9% for the same period last year and 11.8% for the entire 2023.

The company’s share of the U.S. market and Canada is estimated to be 10.8% in the first five month of the year, compared to 10.1% one year ago and 10.2% for the entire year 2023.

Koeck stated that sales of 260,000-270,000 were still very high in historical terms and this is especially true given the current freight recession.

“Now that we know, we’re at the bottom. I am very confident that [the recovery will start] by the end of the year, but it may be necessary to wait until after the elections. Koeck said that the markets will rebound, even if economic growth is not strong.

He noted that “for-hire fleets” had their worst quarter for a decade.

The latest Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America illustrates the strain the segment is under, with many reporting declining revenues and weaker profits in 2023 due to the freight-capacity-supply overhang keeping a lid on rates and boosting shippers’ position in contract talks.

Corey Cox, of the Tandet Group, discusses how early AI users are beginning to reap the benefits of the latest wave. Tune in above or by going to RoadSigns.ttnews.com.

Koeck added that private fleets have already begun their pre-purchase purchases in anticipation of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regulations.

Koeck added that pre-buys will be in full swing by next year. By 2026, the numbers will be massive. “Demand is going to vastly outstrip supply,” Koeck said. “If you wake up in the middle of ’25 thinking you’ll have vehicles ready for use by February ’26, you’re mistaken.”

Koeck said that once the EPA regulations come into effect in 2027 the market will not be so strong. Trucks will be $20,000 more costly in that year. However, there will be a recovery in 2028.

The executive stated that VTNA is well-positioned to meet future demand with the launch in January of a redesigned Class 8 tractor and the $400 million expansion at the New River Valley Manufacturing Plant. Production in Mexico will begin in 2026.

Koeck said, “When the market returns, we will be back in full swing producing VNL.”

VTNA opened its order book for flagship VNL in early April. The series production is expected to begin later this summer and deliveries will begin in the fourth quarter.

The truck manufacturer also plans to offer a number of tractors with alternative fuel drivetrains, such as battery-electric sleepers. VTNA gave the first glimpse of a VNL Electric Semi by the end of the day. The event began with Koeck’s market outlook.

Koeck told TT that the VNL Electric is expected to be available for orders in the last few months of 2025, or at the start of 2026.

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