“We’ve been in the midst of a greater than two-year ‘freight recession,’ as it’s been called in the industry,” Muenster told FleetOwner. “We’ve been on a slump as far as the amount of volumes that we’re seeing moving, in the truckload and intermodal market in particular in the United States.”
Countless factors influence national freight trends. Inflation and interest rates are two of the major macroeconomic trends stifling the movement of goods.
“First and foremost, the general health of consumer sentiment,” Muenster said. “We’ve had elevated inflation, but we’ve also had real wage growth, so inflation-adjusted wages are growing and have been for over a year.”
According to the Statista Research Department, consumer sentiment began to plummet during the pandemic and further crashed throughout 2021’s inflationary crisis. While sentiment made small gains in 2023 and 2024, it still hasn’t come close to pre-pandemic levels.
“At the same time, we’re just not making the kind of significant purchases in terms of durable goods, focused on home goods. The housing market has slowed materially because of rates being elevated and the prices of homes appreciating considerably over the last few years.”
High interest rates discourage new mortgage agreements, slowing overall home sales. According to U.S. Bank, new home sales in April 2024 were down 7.7% year over year.
Even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates later this year, sluggish economic trends would likely keep the freight recovery slow.