Volvo Trucks North America is confident that the Class 8 truck market in North America will see a dramatic turnaround within the next few months, and this for two reasons.
Magnus Koeck is the vice president of strategy and marketing for Volvo Trucks North America. He said that the looming heavy-duty truck emission regulations set to come into effect in 2027 would create a large pre-buy effect. “We see signs of private fleets [pre-buying]. I’m convinced that by the end of the year, even if the economic situation is not that good, the market will rebound.
Koeck estimates that North American class 8 tractors that comply with 2027 emission regulations will cost approximately $20,000 more than trucks today. “That means that you will have a massive, pre-buying impact not only in 2026 but also in 2025.”
If the truck market in the year 2026 reaches record levels, as it did in the years leading up to the 2007 regulations and then again after COVID was implemented, the demand for trucks could be far greater than the supply. Koeck warned that if you wake up in 2025 thinking you’ll have vehicles ready for February 2026, forget about it.
Second, a turnaround could not have come at a more opportune time for a company that boasts the latest, safest and most fuel-efficient truck on the market. Volvo Trucks’ VNL long haul tractor announced earlier this year will begin to hit the road in earnest in this fall, when customers start taking delivery.
The production line of the New River Valley plant is already dotted with new VNLs as the company transitions from legacy VNL models to the new ones later this year. The new VNL is Volvo’s platform that will be used for future versions of tractors. This includes the VNL electric, which could be available by 2026.
Volvo Trucks North America has a 10.8% market share through May 2024 in the United States of America and Canada. This is 0.7% more than a year earlier. Koeck believes the company will be able to grow this to 11.5% at the end of the current year, despite the fact that the industry is currently lagging behind the previous forecast of 270,000 vehicles for 2024, which Koeck still considers as a relatively healthy market. “It will get even better in the next two-years.” In 2027 it will be weak, I can assure you,” he said, adding that the market was likely to rebound in 2028 or beyond.