The latest data from Xeneta shows average spot rates from the Far East to US West Coast stood at US$7,840 per FEU on 9 July, up by 200% since 30 April.
Into the US East Coast, average spot rates have increased by 130% in the same period to stand at US$9,550 per FEU. Into North Europe and the Mediterranean, spot rates have increased by 148% and 88% respectively to stand at US$8,030 and US$7,830 per FEU.
Ms Stausbøll said, “Given we are already seeing record-breaking volumes in May ahead of the traditional peak season in Q3, you can understand why shippers are so concerned.
“The spot market is still climbing, the conflict in the Red Sea shows no signs of ending and the port congestion we are seeing in Asia and Europe will take time to depressurise.
“The big question for the market is whether the record volumes in May will mean reduced volumes in the traditional peak season. Numerous factors come into play, not only underlying consumer demand, but also nervous shippers frontloading imports and the potential for further tariffs on China imports.
“While this combination could keep demand high moving through the next few months, there must be a limit to how long the record levels of demand can last.”
The impact of the record levels of demand combined with longer sailing distances around the Cape of Good Hope is demonstrated through TEU-mile calculations. This data reflects the distance each container is transported globally.
TEU-miles have increased by 17.9% globally in 2024 to date compared with the same period in 2023. This is mostly driven by the Red Sea diversions and longer sailing distances around the Cape of Good Hope.
However, the trades most impacted by the Red Sea diversions are the major deepsea trades out of the Far East, which are also the trades which are driving the record-breaking levels of ocean container shipping demand.
Had ocean container carriers continued to use the Suez Canal, TEU-miles would have increased by a lesser, but still significant, 8.6% in 2024 to-date.
Ms Stausbøll said, “Earlier this year, we saw increasing ocean freight shipping spot rates and wondered if there really was a capacity crunch or whether it was a case of the market panicking unnecessarily following the escalation of conflict in the Red Sea.
“We can now clearly see in the data the squeeze on capacity was very real, especially when you factor in the TEU-mile increase on top of the record-breaking global volumes and port congestion.
“It also demonstrates how much oversupply of capacity there would have been in the market in 2024 had the Red Sea conflict not occurred.”