According to a study, Japan will have 36 per cent fewer truckers than needed to meet the country’s logistics needs in fiscal 2030 because of its graying population. This is due to the introduction this year reforms to curb overwork.
Nomura Research Institute projects that the country’s road cargo volume for the fiscal year ending in March 2031 will be 1,40 billion tons. This is a slight decrease from the 1,43 billion tons of fiscal 2020.
The think tank stated that the number of drivers will fall from 660,000 in fiscal year 2020 to 480,000 by fiscal year 2030, a 36 percent reduction in the workforce needed to deliver 1,40 billion tons.
According to the study, Tohoku, in Japan’s northeast, and Shikoku, in the west will both experience shortfalls of 41%. Kyushu, in the southwest, will see a 40 percent shortfall.
Kazuyuki Kobiashi, the manager of the logistics consulting group at the institute, said that it was necessary to improve logistics efficiency in order to avoid severe economic effects.
In April, Japan introduced a limit of 18 hours per week on overtime for drivers of taxis, buses and trucks. The goal was to improve the working conditions of industries that are experiencing acute labor shortages.
The limit is intended to prevent overworking. However, there are concerns that shorter hours of work will result in a decrease in the capacity for transport delivery, a decline in the revenue of service operators, and higher fees charged by shippers. This is known as the “2024 Problem.”
The Institute also estimated that shipping costs will increase by 34 percent between fiscal years 2022 and 2030 due to pay increases due shortages of drivers and rising fuel prices.
The Institute recommends that shippers automate their warehouse operations and hire trucking services jointly with other firms.
c) KYODO