Commercial freight changes are happening fast, aren’t they?
Look at the rise in e-commerce. It took us until the 1970s to develop the basic concepts of ordering online. Credit card systems became popular. In the 1970s, companies like FedEx began offering next-day delivery. Malcolm McLean invented the container systems which became popular in the 1970s. In the 1980s, Atari, Commodore, and other companies introduced home computers to society. In the 1990s, the internet and the world-wide web allowed electronic commerce to grow rapidly. Amazon and eBay experienced tremendous growth. Apple’s iPhone, released in 2007, was the first smart phone to take off.
Here’s where we are. Even if you are stationed in Greenland’s remotest region, I bet you can order your favorite snack online and have it delivered the next day. Some urban centers offer same-day delivery.
In the last 50 years, electronic fund transfers have been a part of banking. Today, you can get your order delivered on the same day. Consider how much infrastructure was required to make this capability a reality. Computers, cell phone, internet, cellular network, electronic bank, and more. I bet some people in the 1970s were not as visionary and thought that there was no future for it because it would be too expensive, take too long and they couldn’t fathom how it could happen.
Thank you to Frederick Smith, Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard. Also, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak Bill Gates Jeff Bezos Pierre Omidyar and all the other less-famous visionaries who made today possible.
50 years. Is it really that fast? Not really.
Aaron Ward founded Montgomery Wards in 1870s. The first Ward’s Catalog was published in 1872, marking a milestone in the creation of a commercial mail-order system. Sears & Roebuck was founded in the 1890s by Richard Sears, Alvah Roebuck and their successors. All of this occurred in parallel with the growth of rail systems, enabled by the completion of the transcontinental railway in 1869, and other overland services like the Wells Fargo stage coach and pony express. The U.S. Mail Service delivered mail only, not packages. It also only went to central locations. You had to go to town to pick up your mail. In 1896, Congress and the USPS began introducing rural farm delivery systems (RFD) to deliver packages closer to your home. In the early days, payment was made by cash on delivery. When you picked up the package, you paid cash.
Mail order was a process that involved placing an order by mail and having it fulfilled a few weeks later. The package would be delivered to a Grange or train station, where you would have to travel, pay for it, then take it home. This was a huge deal for rural Americans, whose choices were limited to what the local general store (or train station) had in stock.
In the late 1800s, the revolutionary telegraph was just beginning to be used, and the expansion of the rail system coincided with the emergence of telecom systems. Phones were not popularized until after 1900. In 1910, Bell/AT&T had 5.8 millions telephones on its network. This was a tiny fraction of the U.S. population.
In some areas, you could order something over the phone in 1920 and have it delivered right to your door. It could take a few days.
About 50 years. Again.
It takes a massive amount of parallel technological evolution and infrastructure to make the impossible possible. It happens over and over again in the U.S.
The idea that you can order something on your smartphone and get it delivered within an hour dates back to 1870. Massive changes were needed. Massive innovation is needed. Massive infrastructure is needed. Spending was required. Some companies figured out ways to become more profitable. Some companies failed.
But change was inevitable. The market, society, government, innovators, risk takers and pioneers all pushed for change. Even the most reluctant had to come along.
Change is like this.
Commercial freight is always changing. Changes in freight affect everyone: fleets, OEMs and shippers, governments, societies, and many more. Eighty years ago the majority of your freight was transported by steam trains. Cargo ships were small, and they were loaded and unloaded manually by dock workers. Most of your freight is transported by large diesel trucks, followed by smaller gasoline trucks. The ships are huge and the freight is containerized. Thirty-years ago, most of our products were purchased in brick-and mortar stores. Today, a large portion of purchases are made online and delivered directly to our homes with a global supply chain.
What will we be like in 50 years?
I only know two things for sure about the future. It won’t be the same and I won’t be there to see it.
It’s better now for our descendants.
Rick Mihelic, Director of Emerging Technologies at NACFE. He has written for NACFE four guidance reports on electric and alternative-fuel medium- and heavy duty trucks, several Confidence Reports relating to Determining Efficiency and Tractor and Trailer Aerodynamics and Two Truck Platooning. He also authored special studies relating to Regional Hauling, Defining Productivity and Intentional Pairing.